With inflation at multi-decade highs and inflation expectations inching up, the Fed has reprioritized its focus from supporting growth to quickly taming inflation. The Fed has stated (unequivocally, to our ears) that they would gladly risk a recession now via restrictive policy to avoid the bigger risk of higher and more entrenched inflation later. This is the right long-term policy, but means that economic growth will slow in the near term.
As we turn our calendars from the hot summer to temperate fall months, risk assets have started to cool with the weather, with volatility re-emerging in markets. Equities began the quarter by continuing their upward trend and breaking through record highs, driven by a dip in interest rates and robust corporate earnings reports.